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H
uman beings are not particularly rational animals. Some
people jog at 6 in the morning in the winter. Others adopt
more cats than they can easily care for. Some even cheer for
the Kansas City Royals. The examples are everywhere, and
yet economists always seem surprised.
Practically every piece of economic research rests upon the
singular flawed assumption of the rational actor: that people
will, when properly educated, act to maximize their benefits,
minimize their costs and pay only what something is really
worth. But out in the real world, there is an inverse
relationship between money and rationality: the more money
is involved, the more unpredictably we behave. Nowhere is it
more starkly obvious than in the booming world of real estate.
The relative worth of real estate agents is well-travelled
territory, both in academic circles and the mass media. Real
estate industry groups have commissioned volumes of
research over the years, all of which come to the same
career-affirming conclusion for realtors: people who sell
property with the help of an agent get a higher price than
those who don't. But there are obvious holes in all that
research for one thing, the industry has marketed itself so
effectively over the years that few people even try to sell their
homes privately anymore, and those who do tend to have less
valuable houses.
And so, we still wonder: what exactly do agents offer to
justify commissions of five per cent or more on the sale of a
home?
Turns out, not much, according to a new study from Stanford
University. To answer the question definitively, researchers B.
Douglas Bernheim and Jonathan Meer needed to examine
years of data, covering a particular set of houses, all roughly
similar and in a single neighbourhood, where buyers and
sellers all fit into a roughly uniform demographic group. And
this place would have to have a relatively large number of
deals, split between people selling their homes privately and
those employing an agent. The lab they were looking for was
right outside their office windows. The Stanford campus, with
its roughly 800 homes, provided the perfect economic petri
dish to put the real estate industry to the test.
The study looked at 680 home sales between the start of
1980 and the end of 2005, 95 of which involved agents. (In
earlier years, private sales were the norm on campus, but in
the past decade brokered sales have come to represent about
half the transactions.) The average commission paid in these
sales was six per cent, or US$34,000, a hefty chunk of
change, especially considering the results. "We find no
evidence that the use of a broker significantly affects either
the selling price or the initial asking price, though it does lead
to a more rapid sale," the authors write. So in the end, you're
paying more than thirty grand to save a little time. Not
rational.
Mind you, none of this should come as a huge surprise. The
bestselling 2005 book Freakonomics by Steven Levitt and
Stephen Dubner dedicated part of a chapter to exposing some
of the central myths of real estate brokerage. What becomes
abundantly clear is that in the real estate business, it is not
about wringing every last cent out of your home, and it's not
about helping you find the perfect new place for the best
possible price.
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The name of the game is speed closing
many deals as quickly as possible, and moving on to the next.
It's a volume business, disguised as a service. But that
dynamic changes when agents are selling their own homes.
Levitt showed that homes owned by real estate agents stay
on the market significantly longer, and sell for significantly
higher prices than those owned by the rest of us.
The vexing question, then, is why? Why do we still hire real
estate agents and pay them huge amounts of money to do a
simple job that really adds no financial value? Why is it that,
even after reading all this, you and I will still hire a real estate
agent next time we buy or sell a house?
Well, there are the practical concerns, of course getting a
listing on MLS, help with the paperwork and advertising but
all of those things combined are worth no more than a
thousand bucks. No, the real reason we hire realtors lies in
something that can't be easily captured in an economic
model. Economists do very well examining greed because, on
some deep level we don't like to admit, greed is logical. But
economists struggle with that other fundamental human
emotion, fear, because it often isn't rational at all. And fear is
where real estate agents make their money.
Realtors like financial planners, childbirth doulas and
fortune tellers bring the reassuring illusion of expertise to
an inherently terrifying experience. As you embark on what
will likely be the biggest financial decision of your life, they
pat you on the back, tell you everything is going to be okay,
and show you where to sign. As Marjorie Garber pointed out
in her 2007 book Sex And Real Estate, "realtors and house
agents often find themselves functioning as therapists,
psychologists, and marriage counsellors." And they charge
accordingly.
It's easy for economists to look at the dollars and cents of real
estate deals and conclude that the broker industry, and its
US$61 billion in commissions collected in the U.S. last year
alone, is nothing but flim-flam a case of effective marketing
trumping financial wisdom. Doing their best impression of Mr.
Spock, they would describe emotion as an "externality," a
foreign force getting in the way of the efficient operation of
the market, creating an unneccessary drag on the system. In
fact, it's just the opposite.
In a market operated by emotional, erratic humans, the most
rational thing in the world is to seek someone capable of
helping us cope with our fears and get the deal done. By
doing so, they actually grease the wheels of commerce, and
help the system run far more efficiently than if every
homeowner were an agent unto themselves.
Is that service really worth $15,000 on the sale of a $300,000
house? That all depends. Irrational humans do a lot of crazier
things to keep fear in check.
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